🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Trader Made $436K from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of American actions. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month increased in the time leading up to President Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that the president had been seized. A single trader, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Platform data shows that participants put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But the odds had climbed to over 10% by late Friday night and surged in the morning of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," commented Dennis Kelleher. A small number of other individuals also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week seeks to ban federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Prediction markets have grown significantly in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to politics. The industry were examined under the Biden administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. An official representative for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."